I do these tier list predictions before every season based on nothing but rosters and vibes (I don't put much stock in preseason games). 

This is my first time publishing my preseason tiers, though I've done it internally for a couple of years. I have less of a background with hockey than with baseball, only really started watching the NHL when I started undergrad and have never played hockey, but I watch more games and consume a bit more content since I moved to the UK. At least these days, the Ducks give me more hope than the Angels...

Anyway! The tiers are (teams not ranked within a tier): 

1. Cup contenders
   (west) VGK, EDM, COL, DAL; (east) CAR
   thoughts: This year, the path to the Cup seems to run through the West. These teams all have offensive firepower and versatile defense that can both score and defend. All but EDM have strong goaltending and EDM makes up for it with two of the top five players in the world. Thinking that CAR's offense will improve with Ehlers in the fold.

2. Clear playoff teams
   (west) WIN; (east) NJD, TBL, FLA, TOR
   thoughts: Losing Ehlers will hurt the Jets ability to score and 2C Toews is suboptimal; TOR will struggle more than I think many people assume without Marner but there's still enough firepower there to make the playoffs. Assuming reasonable health (risky bet here), NJD should be strong and versatile, but the defense is inexperienced. TBL has great forward depth esp after the deadline deals last year but an aging defense. FLA would have been a Cup contender with Barkov and Tkachuk for a full year. 

3. playoff fringe, will probably make it?
   (west) MIN,  STL, VAN; (east) MTL, OTT, NYR
   west: not sold on the western teams' forward depth. Furthermore I think MIN's defense lacks true offensive upside, STL's defense is either old or inexperienced, no inbetween, and VAN is in trouble without a secondary scorer unless Pettersson has a truly elite year (and even then). 

east: MTL never solved the 2C problem and I'm not sold on the goaltending yet. Adding Dobson helps but I think the forwards are too top heavy and too small. OTT needs someone (probably several someones) other than Tkachuk and Stutzle to take a big step in the forward corps. I don't like NYR much either, but I needed an eighth easter team and they have Shesterkin and added Gavrikov to take some load of Fox. Without Kreider and Kakko and with Zibanejad aging, they might struggle to score unless Laf (or Cuylle?) takes a step.

4. playoff fringe, will probably miss?
   (west) LAK, UTA, ANA; (east) BUF, WAS, BOS, DET
   thoughts: I don't believe in the Kings. The defense relies waaaaay too much on Doughty unless they're actually going to trust Clarke and they invested in... Dumoulin and Ceci. Yikes. UTA and ANA could push VAN for the last spot but I think neither team can defend well enough yet. UTA is almost there (more mature young stars) and ANA is a little bit further out I think. 

BUF wasn't good enough last year and they didn't really add. Same thing with DET (Gibson is not the answer). Do we really think either roster will improve out of nowhere? BOS should be better this year with McAvoy and Lindholm back but they still haven't solved their center issues. I think WAS overachieved like crazy last year and that Protas, Dubois, McMichael and Strome will regress around 15 points each...

5. definitely out
   (west) CAL, SEA, NSH; (east) PIT, PHI, CBJ
   thoughts: SEA seems stuck in the mud - they didn't add much this year and they weren't very good last year. Unless Beniers and Wright both take several steps forward they just seem unimpressive. NSH's problems last year seem like they'll persist this year as they haven't gotten any younger or found any center talent. PIT would drop further if they were guaranteed to deal EK65, Rakell, Rust but for now the veterans keep them above the tragic tier. PHI just doesn't have enough talent ready for the big leagues. CAL and CBJ made surprise runs last year, but I don't believe they're actually all the way there yet

6. no hope
   (west) SJS, CHI; (east) NYI
   thoughts: SJS has a ton of offense, but there's no way that their young forwards will be able to defend enough and that defense is a net negative. CHI doesn't have any real NHL level talent around Bedard and his fellow prospects are not ready at all. NYI has some talent up front but they kind of just seem stagnant. Hopefully they can do something with Schaefer rather than continue slipping.

bonus section: HOT TAKES

• cold: Corey Perry is not cup runner up 

• lukewarm: Toronto loses in the first round to Florida 

• hot: Leo Carlsson is a point per game player 

• fiery: both of last season's conference top seeds miss the playoffs 

• surface of the sun: Connor Ingram wins a Stanley Cup Final game 

I do these tier list predictions before every season based on nothing but rosters and vibes (I don't put much stock in Spring Training games). 

I'm never really all that accurate - at the start of 2023, there was no world in which I saw TEX winning the championship (had them on par with LAA), greatly overrated NYY, STL, SD, and greatly underrated BAL. As the years have gone on, I've spent less and less time watching baseball, especially outside of LAA and LAD; the past twelve months have been even worse since I moved to the UK, so I'm not holding out a ton of hope for my predictions this season, unfortunately.

The tiers are: 

1. World Series favorite
   LAD
   stray thoughts: the juggernaut - how can you bet against them (given health)?

2. World Series contender
   ATL NYY PHI
   stray thoughts: HOU is strictly worse without Tucker and the pitching is worse than it's ever been, so they get moved down several tiers.
   how did TEX win the WS23? still not sold on TEX, but it's hard to discount the defending champs that didn't have subtractions in the offseason. HOU is on the downswing as they age and keep subtracting in free agency. NYY has some huge holes in the infield and question marks in the rotation especially without Cole. PHI is still good but not nearly as good as ATL.

3. playoff contender (should make the playoffs; can't see them winning the World Series, but everyone has a shot if they make the playoffs)
   KC BOS BAL CHC NYM
   stray thoughts: I think the young kids in BAL needs another year of experience before they're full contenders (maybe I'm lower on them than other people are?). AZ and CIN also on the upswing but lacks the star power of the next tier. STL has some star power that needs to rebound, but also lacks pitching.

4. playoff fringe
   SD AZ SEA HOU DET MIN CLE TOR CIN MIL
   stray thoughts: is there any hope for the AL central (or west for that matter) to actually make noise in the playoffs? all these teams have good levels of talent but also huge holes. I see SD and SF as a tick behind AZ because of lineup depth; can't see SEA's offense as quite good enough to move up.  TOR and CHC have some pieces, but there are still a ton of holes

5. division or bust
   SEA DET TEX
   stray thoughts: the AL West doesn't seem good enough to compete for a wild card spot so the division winner will have to make all the noise

6. playoff longshots
   SF LAA TB STL
   stray thoughts: also known as the "why are we not rebuilding tier". TB and SF has it tough in their divisions, LAA lacks leadership, and STL probably will indeed start rebuilding if they can move Arenado.

7. bad
   COL OAK MIA WAS PIT
   stray thoughts: at some point OAK and WAS might take another step? but I think COL and MIA are mired in the muck.

8. tragic
   CHW
   stray thoughts: oh no :)

I do these tier list predictions before every season based on nothing but rosters and vibes (I don't put much stock in Spring Training games). 

I'm never really all that accurate - at the start of 2023, there was no world in which I saw TEX winning the championship (had them on par with LAA), greatly overrated NYY, STL, SD, and greatly underrated BAL. As the years have gone on, I've spent less and less time watching baseball, especially outside of LAA and LAD; the past twelve months have been even worse since I moved to the UK, so I'm not holding out a ton of hope for my predictions this season, unfortunately.

The tiers are: 

1. World Series favorite
   LAD, ATL
   stray thoughts: the tier of early playoff exits. can LAD survive the pressure (and the tungsten arm curse)? can ATL finally beat (or avoid) PHI?

2. World Series contender
   HOU,  PHI, TEX, NYY
   stray thoughts: still not sold on TEX, but it's hard to discount the defending champs that didn't have subtractions in the offseason. HOU is on the downswing as they age and keep subtracting in free agency. NYY has some huge holes in the infield and question marks in the rotation especially without Cole. PHI is still good but not nearly as good as ATL.

3. playoff contender (should make the playoffs; can't see them winning the World Series, but everyone has a shot if they make the playoffs)
   BAL, AZ, STL, CIN
   stray thoughts: I think the young kids in BAL needs another year of experience before they're full contenders (maybe I'm lower on them than other people are?). AZ and CIN also on the upswing but lacks the star power of the next tier. STL has some star power that needs to rebound, but also lacks pitching.

4. playoff fringe
   CLE, MIN, TOR, SEA, SF, SD, CHC
   stray thoughts: is there any hope for the AL central to actually make noise in the playoffs? all these teams have good levels of talent but also huge holes. I see SD and SF as a tick behind AZ because of lineup depth; can't see SEA's offense as quite good enough to move up.  TOR and CHC have some pieces, but there are still a ton of holes

5. too good/proud to tank but not good enough to contend
   LAA, KC, NYM, MIA, DET, BOS, TB
   stray thoughts: LAA, NYM, BOS say all the right things about trying to win but their roster construction decisions leave much to be desired. KC, DET, MIA have good young players but aren't ready for the next step. I hate betting against the TB analytics machine, but here I am, betting against them.

6. too good to tank but would love to tank
   MIL
   stray thoughts: MIL dealing Burnes while planning to promote some of its prospects like Chourio is very confusing; by dealing Burnes, it indicates that they aren't serious about contending this year, which is what lands them in this tier

7. bad
   WAS, COL, CWS
   stray thoughts: there aren't too many teams that are straight bad, but these teams don't have much talent right now.

8. tragic
   OAK
   stray thoughts: they're bad. and not much hope to improve. The off the field issues somehow keep getting worse even after it seems like the organization has hit rock bottom.